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Myanmar's military-backed party poised for victory in disputed polls

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Polls close in Myanmar's contested election

Voting concluded on Sunday in Myanmar's third and final phase of elections widely dismissed as a sham by critics. The military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) is expected to secure a decisive win amid restrictions on opposition participation and ongoing civil conflict.

Restricted participation and conflict zones

Many prominent parties were barred from running, and voting was impossible in large swathes of the country due to a five-year civil war. Approximately 20% of Myanmar's 330 townships, including major cities like Yangon and Mandalay, cast ballots in the final round. Six parties, led by the USDP, competed nationwide, while 51 others contested at state and regional levels.

Two earlier voting phases on December 28 and January 11 also delivered overwhelming victories to the USDP, which secured just 6% of parliamentary seats in the last credible election in 2020.

Superficially orderly, deeply flawed process

A BBC team observed voting at a polling station in Nyaungshwe, Shan State, where proceedings appeared calm and well-organized. Volunteers and officials guided voters through new electronic voting machines at a school shaded by large trees. However, the atmosphere belied the election's legitimacy, critics argue.

The campaign period was marred by intimidation and fear. The BBC team reported being closely monitored by police and military personnel across southern Shan State, making it difficult to gather candid public reactions. Many locals avoided discussing the vote due to concerns over potential repercussions.

Next steps under military-drafted constitution

Final results will trigger a parliamentary session within two months to select a new president. Coup leader Gen. Min Aung Hlaing is widely expected to assume the role, though he will be required to step down as military chief. His successor is anticipated to be a loyalist, but his grip on the armed forces may weaken, as some senior officers reportedly question his leadership.

The election could introduce more voices into government, potentially fostering debate on Myanmar's future and-though distant-the possibility of steps toward ending the civil war.

Background: coup, conflict, and crisis

The military seized power in a 2021 coup, ousting the elected civilian government led by Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi. She remains detained, and her National League for Democracy (NLD) has been dissolved, along with other opposition groups.

The junta has battled armed resistance groups and ethnic militias, losing control of significant territory before regaining ground this year with support from China and Russia. The civil war has killed thousands, displaced millions, and devastated the economy. A March earthquake and reduced international funding have exacerbated the humanitarian crisis.

"The regime claims the election is free and fair, but the reality is far different," an unnamed diplomat told the BBC.

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