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Updated 10 February 2026 - The annual Munich Security Conference opens this week amid deepening transatlantic tensions, exactly one year after US Vice-President JD Vance stunned European leaders with a blistering critique of the continent's migration and free-speech policies.
Vance's 2025 speech set the tone for Trump's foreign policy
Last February, Vice-President JD Vance delivered a keynote address at the Munich Security Conference that left European delegates visibly shaken. He argued that Europe's greatest threat came not from external adversaries but from its own policies, accusing the continent of failing to secure its borders or defend democratic values. The speech foreshadowed a year of dramatic shifts in US foreign policy under the Trump administration.
Since then, Washington has imposed punitive tariffs on allies and rivals alike, launched a controversial military operation in Venezuela, and pursued an uneven peace process in Ukraine that critics say favors Moscow. The administration also sparked diplomatic outrage by suggesting Canada should become the 51st US state-a proposal Ottawa swiftly rejected.
Europe's defense dependence under scrutiny
The latest US National Security Strategy (NSS), released late last year, intensified European anxieties. The document called on Europe to "stand on its own feet" and assume "primary responsibility for its own defense," fueling fears that Washington is withdrawing its security guarantees. While the US has long pressed NATO allies to meet the 2% GDP defense spending target, the NSS framed the issue as a matter of strategic necessity rather than burden-sharing.
Russia, by contrast, allocates over 7% of its GDP to defense, while key European nations like Spain fall short of the 2% benchmark. The UK spends just under 2.5%. Former MI6 chief Sir Alex Younger, who led the UK's Secret Intelligence Service from 2014 to 2020, told the BBC that Europe's reliance on US military support is unsustainable.
"You've got a continent of 500 million [Europe] asking a continent of 300 million [the US] to counter a continent of 140 million [Russia]. It's the wrong way around. Europe must take more responsibility for its own defense."
Sir Alex Younger, former MI6 chief
Greenland crisis exposed transatlantic rifts
The most acute threat to NATO cohesion emerged last year when President Trump repeatedly stated his desire to "own" Greenland, a self-governing Danish territory. He refused to rule out military action, prompting Denmark's prime minister to warn that a US takeover would destroy the alliance. While the immediate crisis has subsided, the episode left lasting scars.
"The Greenland affair revealed how fragile transatlantic trust has become," said Tobias Bunde, director of research and policy at the Munich Security Conference. "It's not just about defense spending-it's about whether the US still sees Europe as a partner or a liability."
US strategy pivots away from post-WWII pillars
Ahead of this year's conference, organizers released a report warning of a "fundamental break" with the US post-World War II strategy. Historically, Washington's approach rested on three pillars: support for multilateral institutions, economic integration, and the promotion of democracy and human rights as strategic assets. The Trump administration has openly questioned all three.
The NSS explicitly calls for backing opposition groups within European nations to counter what it describes as the continent's "civilizational erasure" through migration. The document also prioritizes undermining European governments deemed insufficiently aligned with US interests, despite their status as formal allies.
"The majority of Europe's reaction to this NSS will likely mirror the shock that greeted Vice-President Vance's speech last year," said the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Sophie Eisentraut of the Munich Security Conference described the rise of political actors who "don't promise reform but the demolition of existing institutions."
Article 5's credibility in doubt
The most pressing question hanging over the Munich conference is whether NATO's collective defense clause-Article 5-still holds weight. The provision, which treats an attack on one member as an attack on all, has underpinned European security since 1949. Yet Trump's unpredictability and his administration's dismissive stance toward Europe have cast doubt on Washington's commitment.
Analysts point to hypothetical scenarios like a Russian incursion into Estonia's Narva region, a majority Russian-speaking border town, or an attempt to seize the Suwałki Gap-a strategic corridor between Belarus and Russia's Kaliningrad exclave. Would the US intervene? Trump's past territorial ambitions, including his push to acquire Greenland, offer no clear answers.
"In an era where Russia is waging war in Ukraine, uncertainty about US reliability could lead to dangerous miscalculations," said a NATO official who requested anonymity. "Europe must prepare for a future where it can no longer take American support for granted."
Conference may deliver harsh truths
With US Secretary of State Marco Rubio leading the American delegation, this year's Munich Security Conference is poised to address the widening transatlantic divide. Over 50 world leaders are expected to attend, but the discussions may yield uncomfortable conclusions for Europe.
"The old order is gone," said Bunde. "The question now is whether Europe can adapt-or risk being left behind."
