Ask Onix
Mexico faces security crisis ahead of World Cup
Mexico's role as a co-host for this summer's FIFA World Cup is in jeopardy after a surge of cartel-related violence left at least 25 National Guard officers dead and triggered a nationwide security alert. The clashes erupted following the military's killing of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, alias 'El Mencho,' leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), one of Mexico's most powerful criminal groups.
Cartel retaliation spreads across regions
The CJNG launched coordinated attacks in response to El Mencho's death, engaging in gun battles with security forces, blocking highways, and setting vehicles ablaze. The violence, initially concentrated in Jalisco state, has since spread to at least a dozen other regions. Social media footage shows armed cartel members patrolling streets and thick smoke rising over urban areas.
A state-wide code red alert remains in effect in Jalisco, where Guadalajara-a city of over one million people-is slated to host four World Cup matches. Mexico City and Monterrey are also scheduled to stage games.
Experts warn of prolonged instability
Analysts caution that El Mencho's death may create a power vacuum, fueling further infighting among cartel factions. Javier Eskauriatza, an assistant professor of criminal law at the University of Nottingham, noted that while cartels typically prefer stability to protect their economic interests-including hotels and restaurants-they must also project strength.
"When you push down on the cartels, you get pushback. The danger is that the situation spirals out of control."
Javier Eskauriatza, University of Nottingham
Karina Garcia-Reyes, a senior lecturer in criminology at UWE Bristol, suggested that tourists face only a "moderate risk" if authorities contain the violence quickly. However, she emphasized the importance of following official advisories.
International travel disruptions and concerns
The U.S. government has urged Americans in Jalisco to shelter indoors, while Canada canceled flights to Puerto Vallarta. Flight-tracking apps showed multiple planes diverting mid-route. Meanwhile, four domestic football matches-two in the top division and two in the second tier-were postponed due to the unrest.
Monica Serrano Carreto, a professor of international relations at El Colegio de Mexico, warned that the cartel's access to heavy weaponry, including anti-aircraft capabilities, could prolong the conflict. "The government would have known a military-style confrontation was inevitable," she said.
Economic and political fallout
The CJNG, valued at over £10 billion, has been linked to massacres, kidnappings, and political assassinations since its 2009 founding. Despite its brutality, some cartel figures retain local support by funding infrastructure projects. The group's retaliation was both strategic and symbolic, designed to demonstrate strength on a national stage.
Jon Benjamin, former UK ambassador to Mexico, noted that U.S. pressure-including the designation of cartels as terrorist organizations-has intensified Mexico's crackdown. "This response is not unique, but it is very serious and high-scale," he said.
FIFA has yet to comment on the situation, but security concerns have already overshadowed tournament preparations. In the U.S., the deployment of federal agents ahead of the World Cup has sparked protests after two citizens were killed in separate incidents this year.
What's next for Mexico and the World Cup?
Analysts remain divided on whether the violence will subside as the CJNG regroups or escalate into a prolonged turf war. For now, the global spotlight on Mexico's instability may deter some visitors, despite assurances from officials. With the tournament fast approaching, the country's ability to restore order will be critical to its hosting role.
