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Liberals poised for slim majority after Monday by-elections
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal Party stands on the brink of securing a narrow majority in the House of Commons, pending the outcome of three critical by-elections today. Victories in two Toronto-area ridings would push the Liberals past the 170-seat threshold needed for a technical majority, potentially extending their hold on power until 2029.
Key races in Toronto and Montreal
The Liberals are widely favored to win the Toronto constituencies of Scarborough Southwest and University-Rosedale, both vacated by high-profile figures. Scarborough Southwest was previously held by Bill Blair, now Canada's ambassador to the UK, while University-Rosedale was represented by Chrystia Freeland, former deputy prime minister and current adviser to Ukraine.
The third contest, in the Montreal suburb of Terrebonne, is a tight race between the Liberals and the Bloc Québécois. The seat was decided by a single vote in last year's federal election, but Canada's top court annulled the result in February due to a clerical error involving a postal ballot by Elections Canada.
Defections bolster Liberal ranks
Even without by-election wins, Carney has strengthened his position by attracting five defectors from other parties-four former Conservatives and one New Democratic Party (NDP) member. Political scientist Semra Sevi, of the University of Toronto, described the recent wave of party-switching as "extraordinary."
"Carney has built a big tent, drawing in MPs who wouldn't typically align with the Liberals. The challenge now is that the party's ideological coherence may be stretched thin."
Semra Sevi, University of Toronto
The most recent defector, Marilyn Gladu-a former Conservative with socially conservative views-has pledged to vote with the Liberals on contentious issues like abortion, despite her personal stance. Carney has defended her inclusion, insisting the party's core values remain unchanged.
Shift in Liberal policy under Carney
Under Carney's leadership, the Liberals have adopted more conservative policies compared to the era of his predecessor, Justin Trudeau. The party has scrapped Trudeau's consumer carbon tax and is pushing to position Canada as an "energy superpower" while reducing the public sector workforce. This shift has made the Liberals more appealing to right-leaning MPs.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has condemned the defections as "undemocratic," arguing they undermine voter trust. However, analysts suggest internal dissatisfaction with Poilievre's leadership-coupled with the Conservatives' fading prospects of forming government-has fueled the exodus.
Unity message amid political tensions
Addressing Liberal supporters at a party convention in Montreal on Saturday, Carney framed unity as essential amid national challenges. "Canada's strength lies in its diversity-not uniformity," he said. Media reports indicate the Liberals are actively courting additional MPs from other parties, signaling further potential shifts in the political landscape.
Polls show the Liberals leading the Conservatives by 10 to 15 points, with Carney maintaining strong personal approval ratings.
