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Lebanon's fragile ceasefire amid renewed conflict
Lebanon remains trapped in a cycle of violence as President Joseph Aoun's efforts to disarm Hezbollah face relentless Israeli strikes and internal divisions. Last August, Aoun, a former army chief, expressed optimism about resolving the militia's armed status, but the country has since plunged deeper into crisis.
Aoun's optimism meets reality
During a meeting at the Baabda Palace, Aoun told a reporter he was born an optimist, believing he could disarm Hezbollah after the group's 2024 war with Israel left it weakened. At the time, a shaky ceasefire held, though Israel continued near-daily attacks on alleged Hezbollah-linked targets. The sound of Israeli drones was a constant reminder of the unresolved tensions.
Aoun proposed direct negotiations with Israel-a bold move for two nations without diplomatic ties-but Israel ignored the offer until last week, after U.S.-brokered ceasefire talks with Iran and a devastating Israeli airstrike killed over 300 people in Lebanon.
Hezbollah's dual role: protector or proxy?
Founded in the 1980s during Israel's occupation of Lebanon, Hezbollah, or the "Party of God," has evolved into a powerful political and military force. Backed by Iran, it operates as a resistance movement, a political party, and a social service provider, running schools and hospitals in underserved areas. While designated a terrorist organization by the U.S. and U.K., it remains Lebanon's most influential group.
For its supporters, Hezbollah is the only defense against Israel, which they accuse of occupying Lebanese land. Critics argue the group serves Iranian interests, dragging Lebanon into conflicts it cannot afford. The 1989 Taif Agreement, which ended Lebanon's civil war, mandated militia disarmament, but Hezbollah retained its weapons, citing resistance against Israel. UN Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 war, also called for disarmament-yet remains unimplemented.
Aoun's dilemma: disarmament or civil war?
Aoun has championed a "state monopoly on arms," but Hezbollah has resisted full disarmament. Secretary-General Naim Qassem dismissed negotiations over weapons, warning that forced disarmament could spark violence. A Gallup poll last December found 80% of Lebanese support limiting weapons to the army, but responses split along sectarian lines, with Shia Muslims overwhelmingly opposed.
"You can't impose disarmament on the Shia community by force. Armies aren't built to fight their own people," said Michael Young, senior editor at the Carnegie Center in Beirut.
Michael Young, Carnegie Center
Young added that Lebanon "has nothing to offer" in negotiations with Israel, as the government lacks leverage over Hezbollah. The group's military recovery, aided by Iran's Revolutionary Guard, has reinforced its position, despite Israeli claims of degrading its capabilities.
Escalation and displacement
Israel's latest offensive aims to create a buffer zone in southern Lebanon, displacing over 1.2 million people, mostly Shia Muslims. The strategy risks entrenching Hezbollah's narrative that Lebanon's state cannot protect its territory, further justifying its armed presence.
Journalist Kim Ghattas noted that Hezbollah is deeply embedded in Shia communities, which historically faced marginalization. "For many, this is about survival. If they disarm, will they be vulnerable again?" she said.
Last week's Israeli airstrikes, dubbed "Black Wednesday," killed over 2,000 people in Lebanon, according to the health ministry. In Beirut, Mohammed Hamoud, a resident, stood near a collapsed building, reflecting the nation's exhaustion: "All my life, I've felt we're in a continuous war. Let's hope this is the last one."
Can lasting peace emerge?
Hezbollah's flag-a hand clutching an assault rifle-symbolizes its resistance identity. Nicholas Blanford, author of Warriors of God, argued that disarmament would fundamentally alter the group. "The military component is its beating heart. Remove it, and Hezbollah becomes something else entirely."
With negotiations in Washington this week, Lebanon's future hangs in the balance. Aoun's optimism has faded, replaced by the grim reality of a nation caught between a militant group, a hostile neighbor, and its own fractured politics.
