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Pacific nation relies on tuna for survival
Kiribati, a small island nation in the central Pacific, derives over 70% of its government revenue from selling tuna fishing licenses to foreign fleets, making it the most tuna-dependent country in the world.
Vast waters, limited land
Though Kiribati's combined landmass is roughly the size of New York City, its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) spans more than 3.4 million square kilometers-an area larger than India. This vast territory is rich in marine life, particularly skipjack, yellowfin, and bigeye tuna, which are critical to the nation's economy and culture.
Climate change poses existential threat
Rising ocean temperatures due to climate change now endanger Kiribati's economic lifeline. Scientists warn that tuna populations may migrate eastward to cooler waters, reducing demand for Kiribati's fishing licenses. A 2024 government report estimated potential annual losses of over $10 million in access fees by 2050 if greenhouse gas emissions remain high.
Tuna are highly sensitive to temperature shifts, reacting to changes as small as 0.1°C. Fisheries specialist Simon Diffey notes that while Papua New Guinea has resources to diversify its economy, Kiribati-where the highest point above sea level is just two meters-has few alternatives.
Economic and food security at risk
In 2024, Kiribati earned $137 million from fishing licenses, accounting for nearly three-quarters of government income between 2018 and 2022. This revenue represents about 40% of the country's GDP, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Local fishermen are expected to face declining catches, exacerbating food security challenges. The average Kiribati resident consumes around 100 kg of fish annually-far more than in the U.S. (9 kg) or Japan (22 kg). Reduced local fish stocks are pushing households toward imported foods, raising costs and lowering nutritional quality, particularly in outer island communities.
Adaptation efforts underway
The United Nations' Green Climate Fund launched a $156.8 million project in 2025 to help Pacific Island nations, including Kiribati, adapt to climate-driven tuna migration. The initiative aims to strengthen early warning systems, maintain food security, and provide around four million nutritious fish meals annually for Kiribati communities.
"These measures are expected to provide around four million nutritious fish meals each year for communities in Kiribati," the Ministry of Fisheries said.
Diversification and hope
Kiribati is expanding its own tuna processing and canning facilities while developing ocean farming for species like milkfish, snapper, and sea cucumbers. The government is also exploring tourism, renewable energy, and its offshore sovereign wealth fund to reduce dependence on fishing licenses.
Permanent Secretary for the Ministry of Fisheries Riibeta Abeta remains cautiously optimistic: "Kiribati retains grounds for optimism and strategic opportunity."
Uncertain future
Despite adaptation efforts, Kiribati's territorial waters-and its very existence-remain vulnerable to climate change. The Pacific Community's 2025 communiqué identified Kiribati as one of the nations most affected by tuna stock migration, underscoring the urgent need for global emissions reductions and regional support.
