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Italy's historic triumphs contrast with current struggles
Italy, once a dominant force in world football, faces the prospect of missing a third consecutive World Cup after a turbulent qualifying campaign. The four-time champions, who last lifted the trophy in 2006, must navigate a high-stakes play-off to secure a spot in this summer's tournament.
The road to redemption
The Azzurri's path to the 2026 World Cup has been far from smooth. After a dismal start under Luciano Spalletti, who was dismissed following a 3-0 defeat to Norway, the team saw a brief resurgence under interim manager Gennaro Gattuso. Victories against Estonia, Israel, and Moldova briefly reignited hope, but a subsequent 4-1 home loss to Norway dashed their automatic qualification hopes, relegating them to the play-offs.
Italy will face Northern Ireland in a one-legged semi-final in Bergamo this Thursday. A win would set up a final play-off against either Wales or Bosnia-Herzegovina next week, with the victor earning a place in the expanded 48-team tournament.
A legacy of decline
Italy's golden era, marked by their 2006 World Cup victory, now feels distant. That triumph, built on a generation of homegrown talent like Fabio Cannavaro, Gianluigi Buffon, and Alessandro Del Piero, was the culmination of a development model that no longer exists. The 1990s saw Italy's under-21 side, coached by Cesare Maldini, win three consecutive European Championships, with future stars gaining invaluable experience in Serie A.
However, the Bosman ruling in 1995 dismantled Italy's player quota system, leading to an influx of foreign talent and shrinking opportunities for domestic players. Italian football writer Emmet Gates told BBC Sport: "As the years have gone on, Serie A clubs have relied more on foreign talent than local ones. If anything, they're relying more on young foreign talent than Italians."
Financial woes and structural challenges
Italy's struggles extend beyond the pitch. Financial constraints have left Serie A clubs lagging behind their European counterparts. None of Italy's clubs rank in the top 10 of Deloitte's list of the world's highest revenue-generating clubs, a stark contrast to the Premier League's lucrative TV deals and heavy investment in other leagues.
European football expert Julien Laurens noted: "The academies in Italy are not producing enough players, or players who are fit to play in their first team. The way they spend their money is not what we are used to from Italian clubs." Former Italy forward Alessandro Del Piero added: "The level of investment is low. Other markets have become much, much bigger than us. Problems? Stadiums. We know you have to perform better outside of the pitch [to improve] that."
A telling statistic highlights Italy's decline: only eight of the 487 goals scored in this season's Champions League league phase were by Italian players.
Play-off pressure and a nation's nerves
Despite a relatively strong qualifying campaign-winning six of eight matches-Italy's recent play-off failures loom large. Defeats to Sweden in 2018 and North Macedonia in 2022 have left the nation scarred, according to Gates. "The play-offs will bring back horrible memories," he said. "It's sure to affect the confidence."
If Italy qualifies, they will join Canada, Qatar, and Switzerland in Group B, with their first match against Canada on June 12. For a football-mad nation with four World Cup titles, the prospect of missing another tournament is unthinkable. As Gates put it: "If a nation as football-mad and historically successful as Italy can't beat Northern Ireland and Wales/Bosnia, then they don't deserve to go to the World Cup in the summer."
A glimmer of hope
Italy's recent form offers a sliver of optimism. Their 75% win rate in the current qualifying campaign surpasses their efforts in 2018 (58%) and 2022 (44%). Yet, the play-off hurdle remains daunting. For a nation that once set the standard in world football, the journey back to prominence is fraught with challenges-both on and off the pitch.
