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Israel declares strategic shift after strikes on Iran
Israeli leaders claim military operations against Iran have permanently altered regional power dynamics, even as Tehran's government remains intact. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spent decades positioning Iran as Israel's primary adversary, vowing to neutralize its influence.
Netanyahu's long campaign against Iran
Netanyahu has long portrayed Iran as an existential threat, framing the current conflict as the culmination of his political career. In a recent press conference, he declared the Middle East and Israel irrevocably changed by the bombing campaign, asserting, "This is no longer the same Iran, this is no longer the same Middle East, and this is not the same Israel."
Military leaders echoed this rhetoric. Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff described the operation as "securing our existence and future in the land of our forefathers for generations." A former national security adviser called it "a golden opportunity to reshape the entire region."
Military gains without regime collapse
Israel's strikes targeted Iran's leadership, including the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as well as missile production sites and nuclear facilities. While Netanyahu initially pushed for regime change, he has since signaled acceptance of Iran's weakened but surviving government.
IDF spokesman Lt Col Nadav Shoshani stated the damage to Iran's weapons programs is "permanent or semi-permanent," aiming to delay future threats. Former national security adviser Maj Gen Yaakov Amidror acknowledged Israel's limitations, saying, "We're not a superpower, and we must act within our means."
Reports from Israeli media suggest internal strain within Iran's Revolutionary Guard, including desertions, though no mass uprising has materialized.
Political risks for Netanyahu
Analysts warn Netanyahu's claims of "total victory" risk backfiring. Neri Zilber, a Tel Aviv-based journalist, noted, "Hamas still controls half of Gaza, Hezbollah is stronger than expected, and Israel is now in a larger war with Iran than before." The prime minister's past promises-including a 2025 declaration of "historic victory" after a prior conflict-have not prevented renewed hostilities.
Public support for the war remains high, but Netanyahu faces pressure to deliver lasting security. His government has framed the conflict as the "War of Redemption," tying it to the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks that exposed intelligence failures under his leadership.
Fighting on multiple fronts
Israel is simultaneously battling Hezbollah in Lebanon, where it seeks to disarm the Iran-backed group. IDF Chief of Staff Lt Gen Eyal Zamir called the Lebanon campaign "the war of our generation," emphasizing its long-term stakes. Military officials privately acknowledge plans for a potential ground invasion.
Hezbollah's response to Khamenei's killing has prolonged the conflict, raising questions about whether Israel can sustain operations if the U.S. pushes for a ceasefire amid rising oil prices.
Legacy and elections
Netanyahu is expected to capitalize on the war to bolster his political standing ahead of elections. Despite war-weariness, polls show strong public backing for the campaign. Analysts suggest he may seek to redefine his legacy by positioning this conflict as a definitive response to the October 7 attacks.
Yet the absence of regime change in Iran leaves open the question of how long Israel's gains will last. As Maj Gen Amidror put it, "We must prevent beasts from growing on our borders." Whether military force alone can achieve that remains unanswered.
