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Escalation follows Iranian missile attack on Israel
Israel launched its first airstrikes inside Iran since an April ceasefire after Tehran fired missiles at Israeli territory on Sunday. Iran claimed the attack was retaliation for Israeli strikes on Beirut, Lebanon's capital. The exchange risks reigniting direct confrontation between Iran and the United States, despite Washington's efforts to broker a diplomatic solution.
US-Israel tensions surface over retaliation
US President Donald Trump publicly urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to refrain from retaliating against Iran, warning that an Israeli counterstrike could undermine fragile negotiations with Tehran. Trump told journalists he planned to call Netanyahu to deliver the message, only to later reveal that Israeli aircraft were already en route to Iranian targets when the conversation occurred.
Speaking to the BBC on Monday, Trump denied Netanyahu had defied his request, stating, "If I tell him to do something, he does it." However, the sequence of events suggested a disconnect between the two leaders, adding to a pattern of strained communications in recent months.
"We're in the final throes of what will be a very, very good deal."
Donald Trump, US President
Trump indicated a potential agreement with Iran could materialize within "two or three days," with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as an immediate priority. Yet, his administration has reportedly clashed with Netanyahu over Israel's military actions, including a profanity-laced outburst last week in which Trump called the Israeli leader "crazy" for targeting Beirut.
Limited US approval likely behind Israeli strikes
Despite public friction, Israel's ability to conduct strikes inside Iran suggests at least tacit approval from Washington. Analysts note that Israel would have required coordination with US forces in the region, given the significant American military presence. The US currently maintains its largest Middle East deployment since the Iraq invasion, with hundreds of personnel in Israel liaising with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).
The IDF confirmed "full coordination" with US Central Command, adding that American forces assisted in intercepting Iranian missiles targeting Israel. By Monday afternoon, both countries signaled the immediate round of hostilities had concluded-a development likely welcomed by Trump, who has prioritized diplomatic engagement with Tehran.
Aaron David Miller, a former US negotiator, described Trump's stance as a "blinking yellow light," implying conditional consent for a measured Israeli response.
Iran's strategic calculus and economic pressures
Iran's decision to strike Israel marked a shift in its retaliation pattern, targeting Israeli territory for the first time in response to an attack on Lebanon rather than a direct provocation inside Iran. Tehran aimed to link two ceasefires-its own fragile truce with the US and the nominal halt in hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah-while testing Washington's resolve to support Israeli counterstrikes.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian framed the missile attack as a demonstration of strength, asserting that "diplomacy and defense" were the "two wings of national power." On social media, he declared Iran had not abandoned either the battlefield or the negotiating table.
Economic strain, exacerbated by a US naval blockade of Iranian ports, has intensified Tehran's urgency for sanctions relief and the release of frozen oil revenues. Iran also seeks to curb Israeli military actions against Hezbollah in Lebanon, viewing the group as a critical deterrent against further Israeli aggression. High global oil prices, driven by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have added pressure on Trump ahead of US midterm elections, potentially limiting his appetite for further escalation.
Diplomatic stalemate persists despite de-escalation
Trump's insistence that no sanctions would be lifted or assets unfrozen upfront as part of a deal may explain the continued impasse. While both sides have signaled a temporary pause in hostilities, the underlying tensions remain unresolved. Iran's leadership appears emboldened by the recent exchange, calculating that Trump's desire for a diplomatic win could yield concessions.
However, the risk of miscalculation looms large. Each escalation tests the limits of Trump's patience, and further destabilization could yet drag the US and Iran into direct conflict. For now, the region remains on edge, with neither side willing to abandon military posturing or diplomatic maneuvering.
