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Iranians mark Nowruz amid war, censorship, and fear of retaliation

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Nowruz celebrations overshadowed by conflict

As Iranians prepare for Nowruz, the 3,000-year-old festival heralding spring and the new year, many are grappling with the realities of war and government repression. Zahra, a grandmother in a Tehran suburb, is cleaning her home for the occasion, but her thoughts are with her children, cut off by internet blackouts imposed by authorities.

"My children are restless. Not being able to hear their voices is driving me insane. This is truly the height of cruelty and oppression for a mother."

Zahra's name and location have been altered to protect her from government retaliation, a precaution taken for many Iranians speaking to foreign media.

Crackdown on dissent intensifies

Recent reports from the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, citing Iran's intelligence ministry, reveal that 10 individuals were arrested for "co-operating with foreign media," while two others face charges of "creating psychological insecurity in society through cyberspace." Nearly four weeks after US and Israeli strikes targeted Iran, the country remains in a state of turmoil, with civilian casualties nearing 3,000, over half of them non-combatants.

Outside Zahra's home, the aftermath of attacks on oil depots is visible-blackened residue from "black rain" coats the courtyard. Despite the devastation, she insists on upholding Nowruz traditions, hoping for an end to the darkness.

"Everything in the courtyard had been blackened by oil. We no longer have visits or gatherings, but symbolically, we must prepare ourselves, clean our homes, and welcome Nowruz. Perhaps this dark night will finally give way to dawn."

When asked about a potential ceasefire, Zahra rejects the idea outright.

"This regime has inflicted so much pain on us over the past 47 years, leaving countless mothers without their children-more than even the war itself did. So, I prefer that there be no ceasefire until this entire regime is gone."

Divided loyalties and fears of civil war

Government supporters continue to rally against the US-Israeli campaign, but the true extent of public sentiment remains difficult to measure amid censorship and wartime pressures. The brutal suppression of anti-regime protests in January has left deep scars, deterring open dissent.

Samar, a Tehran student whose name has been changed for her safety, warns of the risks of regime collapse. She describes a "culture of martyrdom" among the government's most loyal backers, who believe its downfall would spell the end of their religion.

"It means they're willing to die but not let the regime fall-because they think its fall means the end of their religion. That's how effectively the regime does brainwashing."

Samar compares the regime's structure to a hydra, with multiple successors pre-assigned to key officials. She acknowledges the complexity of its support base, which includes religious devotion, patriotism, and fear of national fragmentation.

"They [the regime] created several different lines of thinking. And every supporter is attached to one of them. One is what I just said [religion]. Some are influenced through patriotism and the idea of an enemy. Some through fear of the country breaking apart."

When asked about the future, Samar expresses pessimism.

"Wherever I look, it's a mess. Even if Pahlavi [the son of Iran's last Shah] comes and tries to form a new government, I think these people will start suicide attacks. They won't back down."

Military conscription and desertion

Ali, a young man in his early 20s, faces mandatory military service but refuses to enlist. His decision follows the death of a close friend in an airstrike on an army base. Another friend narrowly escaped, while a third deserted.

"I heard that they had bombed that place. After that, I found out that my friend had been killed. I could not believe it myself. I called the other friends, and they told me, 'Yes, that friend of ours has been killed.'"

Ali describes the coercive nature of conscription, with authorities forcibly enlisting men they encounter. Despite the risks, he is determined to avoid service.

"I definitely won't go because my life would be in danger. Whatever I can do, I will do so that I don't go into military service."

Uncertain future amid escalating conflict

The Iranian government retains its repressive apparatus, military strength, and a core support base, enabling it to sustain the conflict. A ceasefire, if achieved, would likely leave the current leadership intact, at least in the short term. However, an escalating war could trigger unpredictable consequences for both the regime and the Iranian people.

Additional reporting by Alice Doyard and Josh Cheetham, BBC Verify.

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