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Overnight missile strikes deepen Middle East tensions
Iran launched missiles at northern and southern Israel late Tuesday, hours after Israel confirmed it had conducted dozens of airstrikes inside Iran, targeting Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) command centers and intelligence facilities in Tehran. The Israeli military also struck weapons depots and air defense sites, according to official statements.
Civilian impact in Tel Aviv
In northern Tel Aviv, a residential area bore the brunt of an Iranian missile strike, leaving balconies shattered and walls collapsed into a crater between apartment buildings. Local reports indicate the projectile narrowly missed several housing blocks, injuring six people, none critically.
A resident described the chaos after air raid sirens sounded: "I barely reached my front door when the explosion blew it open. Glass was flying everywhere as I ran out barefoot. When I looked back, flames were already spreading through the debris."
US diplomacy fuels Israeli skepticism
Speculation persists over U.S. President Donald Trump's motives for reopening dialogue with Tehran, particularly as thousands of U.S. Marines deploy to the region. Some Israeli officials view the move as a potential exit strategy, creating friction with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's stated objectives.
"Netanyahu doesn't want a deal. He promised this war would eliminate existential threats to Israel and possibly even change Iran's regime. Right now, there's a clear gap between his promises and reality."
Michael Milstein, former Israeli military intelligence officer and head of the Palestinian Studies Centre at Tel Aviv University
Milstein warned that if Trump pursues negotiations in earnest, Netanyahu could face an impossible dilemma: "He can't continue the war without U.S. support, but he also can't publicly reject diplomacy."
Diverging priorities and high stakes
Netanyahu's government has framed the conflict as a decisive battle against Iran and its proxies, setting a high bar for any agreement. Likud lawmaker Dan Illouz argued that containment strategies have repeatedly failed, citing the October 7 Hamas attacks as proof. "Israelis want the war to end, but only through defeating the regime-not through temporary truces that allow threats to resurface."
Following a call with Trump on Monday, Netanyahu reiterated Israel's commitment to defending its interests, vowing to continue strikes in Iran and Lebanon. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced plans on Tuesday to establish a security buffer in southern Lebanon, barring residents from returning until Hezbollah no longer threatens Israeli communities.
Analysts doubt deal feasibility
Experts question whether negotiations can bridge the chasm between U.S. and Iranian positions. Danny Citrinowicz, an Iran analyst at Tel Aviv's Institute for National Security Studies, noted that Tehran perceives itself as gaining leverage, demanding concessions and guarantees. "Trump expects Iran to meet all U.S. demands upfront, but this regime won't capitulate. They control the Strait of Hormuz-a critical oil chokepoint-and believe they hold the upper hand."
Tehran's confidence may have been bolstered by Trump's recent withdrawal of an ultimatum to reopen the strait or face attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure. The threat was rescinded after Iran vowed to retaliate against U.S.-linked regional energy sites.
Uncertain path forward
Observers suggest Trump's overtures could serve multiple purposes: calming energy markets, sowing discord within Iran's leadership, or buying time for military action. One analyst speculated that a sudden U.S. offensive remains possible, noting, "This conflict is trapped between escalation and surrender, with neither side willing to concede."
