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Empty trains highlight India's metro ridership crisis
Mumbai's Aqua Line, a 33.5km underground metro corridor launched last year, now carries barely a tenth of its projected 1.5 million daily passengers, exposing a nationwide trend of underused urban rail networks.
Billion-dollar expansion yields mixed results
Since 2014, India has invested over $26 billion to expand metro networks from under 300km to more than 1,000km by 2025. Daily ridership has grown from 3 million to 11 million, but most corridors fall far short of initial forecasts.
An Indian Institute of Technology Delhi study found actual ridership at 25-35% of projections across corridors, with little improvement in 2024-25. Tier-3 cities like Kanpur recorded just 2% of expected usage, while Chennai reached 37% in its first phase.
Demand forecasts and affordability challenges
Experts cite inflated demand projections as a key issue. Ashish Verma of the Indian Institute of Science noted that consultants often exaggerate figures to secure project approvals, basing estimates on unrealized capacities like train frequency and coach numbers.
Affordability remains a critical barrier. Mumbai's Aqua Line fares range from 10 to 70 rupees per trip, while a three-month unlimited pass on the suburban railway costs just 590 rupees. For lower-income workers, metro fares can consume up to 20% of income, exceeding the global benchmark of 10-15%.
"In a price-sensitive country like India, reducing subsidies may not be the right approach," Verma said, citing a 13% ridership drop in Bengaluru after a fare hike last year.
Last-mile gaps and safety concerns
Poor last-mile connectivity and network inefficiencies further suppress demand. Nandan Dawda of the Observer Research Foundation highlighted the lack of feeder buses and long transfer times, such as the 15-20 minutes required to switch lines at Delhi's Hauz Khas station.
Safety and accessibility also deter passengers. Chetna Yadav, a Delhi resident, avoids late-night metro trips due to unreliable cab availability near stations. Verma added that inadequate walkways and safety concerns discourage use, even in major cities.
Future outlook: incremental growth amid persistent hurdles
Despite challenges, experts anticipate gradual ridership increases as traffic congestion and pollution worsen. Aditya Rane of the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy emphasized the need for better bus integration, station access, and fare policies to boost adoption.
Without these improvements, India's metros may remain operationally useful but underperform against their original goals.
