India’s Exports to US Rebound 14.5% in October Amid Tariff Pressures

India's Exports to US Rebound 14.5% in October Amid Tariff Pressures

India's goods exports to the United States rose by 14.5% in October compared to September, marking the first increase in five months despite persistent tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, according to trade data released this week.

The rebound follows a sharp decline in shipments after the US implemented 50% tariffs on Indian goods-including a 25% penalty for purchasing Russian oil-effective August 27. Despite the October uptick, exports to the US have plummeted by 28.4% between May and October, erasing over $2.5 billion in monthly trade value, analysts noted.

Key Drivers Behind the Recovery

Trade experts suggest the improvement may stem from tariff-exempt sectors such as smartphones and pharmaceuticals, though specific figures remain unverified. Meanwhile, India's state-owned oil firms finalized a landmark agreement to import 10% of the country's annual liquified petroleum gas (LPG) needs from the US-a move Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri called a "historic development."

The Trump administration has repeatedly urged India to reduce reliance on Russian oil, which accounted for 37% of India's $52.7 billion oil imports last year. While Delhi has not officially confirmed cuts, US officials claim progress in negotiations ahead of Russian President Vladimir Putin's planned visit to India next month.

Trade Deal Progress and Agricultural Exemptions

Diplomatic tensions over energy imports had stalled US-India trade talks for months, but a senior Indian official told The Hindu that the "first phase" of a broader trade deal is now "more or less near closure." The US also rolled back reciprocal tariffs on select Indian farm products-including tea, coffee, and spices-potentially exempting roughly $1 billion in exports from duties.

"Supplies have stabilized in exempted sectors, but broader trade challenges persist," said Ajay Srivastava of the Delhi-based Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).

Ajay Srivastava, GTRI

Broader Export Decline Continues

While US-bound shipments recovered, India's overall goods exports fell 11.8% year-on-year in October, with 15 of its top 20 trade partners recording declines. The mixed results underscore lingering uncertainties as Delhi balances energy ties with Moscow and trade negotiations with Washington.

Next Steps

Officials from both nations are expected to finalize preliminary trade agreements in the coming weeks, though the timeline for a comprehensive deal remains unclear. Putin's December visit to India could further shape the trajectory of energy and economic cooperation.