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Sharp decline in Indian applications to Canadian universities
At an education consultancy in Delhi, brochures for universities in Italy, Germany, and Australia now dominate the tables-Canada, once the top choice for Indian students, has nearly vanished from the conversation.
Shobhit Anand, who runs the consultancy, reports an 80% drop in applications since 2023. "People don't want to apply to Canada anymore," he says, citing soaring visa rejection rates as a major deterrent.
Policy shifts and economic pressures drive the change
A report by Canada's auditor general revealed that Indian students made up just 8.1% of incoming international students in September 2025, down from 51.6% in 2023. The decline stems from a mix of factors: stricter visa and immigration rules, rising living costs, and a diplomatic rift in 2023 that strained bilateral ties.
For years, Canada's private colleges offered a reliable pathway for middle-class Indian families-enroll in a vocational program, secure a job post-graduation, and apply for permanent residency within five years. But that route has collapsed under new restrictions.
Visa caps and financial barriers
In early 2024, Canada imposed a two-year cap on undergraduate and diploma study permits, limiting admissions to 350,000 annually. Postgraduate programs remained unaffected, but the move dealt a severe blow to Indian students, who often targeted shorter, more affordable courses.
Living costs have also surged. Rents in major cities have climbed sharply, and the Guaranteed Investment Certificate (GIC)-proof of funds required for study permits-doubled to over C$20,000 ($14,450) in 2024. "For many families, securing that amount is difficult," says Sushil Sukhwani of Edwise Overseas Education. "With the risk of visa rejection, they hesitate."
Study permit rejections rose from 38% in 2023 to 52% in 2024, according to ICEF Monitor. In India, where studying abroad requires meticulous financial planning, the uncertainty has made families wary.
Scrapped fast-track visas and job market struggles
The auditor general's report also flagged concerns over the now-defunct Student Direct Stream (SDS), a fast-track visa system popular among Indian applicants. Approval rates for Indians under SDS soared from 61% in 2022 to 98% in 2024, even as officials warned of fraudulent applications and students skipping classes. The scheme was scrapped by late 2024, tightening scrutiny further.
The report noted that the program was "targeted by non-genuine students seeking entry to Canada," with nearly all approved SDS applications coming from India.
Job prospects have also dimmed. Many private colleges expanded rapidly during the "international student boom" post-pandemic, but critics argue they prioritized revenue over academic value. As a result, graduates now struggle to find stable work, leaving them unable to recoup the high costs of studying abroad.
Anand recalls a former student who moved to Canada two years ago. After completing his course, the 24-year-old could only find part-time jobs and eventually returned to India. "He couldn't make ends meet," Anand says.
Elite universities shielded from the worst impacts
McGill University President Deep Saini explains that Indian students fall into two groups: those seeking quality education at top institutions and those using smaller colleges as a migration pathway. The visa crackdown targeted the latter, sparing elite universities like McGill, which saw only a slight dip in admissions.
"We experienced collateral damage from tighter visa rules and diplomatic tensions," Saini says, "but numbers are now returning to normal."
Diplomatic thaw offers cautious hope
Efforts to rebuild ties are underway. Earlier this year, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visited India, accompanied by officials from top universities. New education partnerships and scholarships are in the works, but the damage lingers.
For 17-year-old Tanishq Khurana, the decision to apply to Canada is no longer straightforward. After learning about visa rejections and admission limits, he considered staying in India for his undergraduate studies. Ultimately, he decided to reapply, drawn by family ties and better opportunities. "My sister and cousins are settled there," he says. "The education and job prospects are still better than in India."
Yet the post-graduation work permit-once a guaranteed stepping stone-no longer assures stability. With rising living costs and a competitive job market, many graduates find themselves in limbo, legally present but struggling to build the life they envisioned.
The Canadian dream, once a plan, has become a gamble for Indian students.
