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Shipping disruptions threaten India's fertiliser supplies
India's agricultural sector is bracing for potential fertiliser shortages as ongoing conflict in the Middle East disrupts critical shipping routes, raising concerns over farm output and food prices.
Dependence on imports heightens vulnerability
As the world's second-largest fertiliser consumer after China, India relies heavily on imports-particularly from Gulf nations-with much of the supply passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Recent disruptions have sparked fears of shortages ahead of the June-July sowing season.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has assured that government measures are in place to safeguard supplies, though analysts warn that prolonged conflict could strain existing stocks.
Current stocks sufficient, but future risks loom
Government data shows India held 6.2 million tonnes of urea as of March 19, enough to cover the upcoming monsoon crop season under normal conditions. However, farmers and industry experts caution that extended disruptions could deplete reserves.
"We don't know how long the stock will last if the war stretches further," said Manpreet Singh Grewal, president of a farmers' collective linked to Punjab Agricultural University.
Farmers in key grain-producing states like Punjab and Haryana report no immediate shortages, with supplies available through cooperatives and warehouses. But concerns persist over long-term availability.
Urea critical for staple crops
India consumes nearly 40 million tonnes of urea annually, subsidised by the government. The fertiliser is vital for crops like rice and wheat, which cannot absorb sufficient nitrogen from the air. Disruptions could force farmers to alter planting decisions, potentially impacting yields.
Siraj Hussain, former federal agriculture secretary, warned that while some regions overuse urea, others with lower application rates could face greater vulnerability if supplies dwindle.
Production cuts and global price pressures
Fertiliser plants in India are operating at 70% capacity due to reduced natural gas supplies-a key urea input, 85% of which is imported from the Gulf. Industry insiders report production cuts, while global urea prices have surged amid broader supply constraints.
Alberto Persona of S&P Global Energy noted that disruptions beyond four weeks could become "more concerning," though immediate yield risks remain low. Still, market expectations may drive food price volatility.
Government steps to mitigate risks
Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has directed officials to ensure uninterrupted fertiliser distribution. Modi's administration is also accelerating domestic production and diversifying import sources to reduce reliance on the Gulf.
However, Hussain warned that higher global prices could inflate the government's subsidy burden, as fertilisers are sold to farmers at controlled rates.
Outlook hinges on conflict duration
Analysts say supply chains could stabilise if shipping resumes normal operations within weeks. For now, farmers and policymakers remain watchful, balancing current sufficiency against an uncertain future.
