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Record turnout signals high stakes in Hungarian election
Hungarians cast ballots in an election that could unseat Prime Minister Viktor Orbán after 16 years in power, with early turnout surging to 16.89% by midday-six percentage points higher than the 2020 vote. Polls close at 19:00 local time (17:00 GMT), with results expected later tonight.
Orbán faces strongest challenge from former ally
Péter Magyar, a former Fidesz insider who broke ranks to form the centrist Tisza party, leads most polls. Speaking after voting in Budapest, Magyar pledged to restore Hungary's standing in the EU and NATO while tackling corruption if elected. His final rally in Debrecen drew larger crowds than Orbán's event in the capital.
Orbán, casting his ballot, dismissed suggestions he had underestimated Magyar. "I am here to win," he told reporters. The prime minister has framed the election as a choice between stability and chaos, warning that the opposition would "stop at nothing" to seize power.
Economic struggles and scandals erode Fidesz support
Orbán's grip on power has weakened amid economic stagnation and a series of scandals, including revelations that Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó held undisclosed calls with his Russian counterpart before EU summits. Hungary's veto of €90 billion in Ukraine aid has further strained relations with Brussels and Washington.
Despite Trump's endorsement-calling Orbán a "true friend, fighter, and WINNER"-analysts say the prime minister's fifth consecutive victory is far from assured. Róbert László of Political Capital noted that Tisza maintains a "huge lead" in polls, defying expectations that Fidesz would narrow the gap.
Battle for super-majority could reshape Hungary's institutions
Magyar has argued that only a two-thirds parliamentary super-majority can reverse Fidesz's constitutional changes, which critics say undermined judicial independence and media freedom. Hungary ranks last in the EU on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index.
"The most likely outcome is a comfortable majority for Tisza, but not two-thirds. Still, we can't rule it out,"
Róbert László, Political Capital
Orbán has acknowledged that Hungary's electoral system favors his party, but pollster Ágoston Mráz of Nézőpont Institute warns of potential unrest if Fidesz wins. "Tisza voters may not accept defeat, raising fears of street violence," he said.
Key battlegrounds and shifting alliances
Fidesz's dominance faces tests in cities like Győr, where independent mayor Roland Kósa accused the ruling party of "arrogance" toward local leaders. Magyar's campaign has mobilized first-time voters, including 20-year-old student Gergely Németh, who said: "The priority isn't Péter Magyar-it's removing Fidesz."
Magyar's strategy mirrors Orbán's past tactics, building grassroots "Tisza-islands" in Fidesz strongholds. His candidates include doctors, teachers, and business leaders, avoiding traditional politicians. The election has played out on social media and in town squares, with no televised debates between the two leaders.
Tensions rise as results loom
Fidesz officials claim confidence but warn of opposition refusal to concede. A recent anti-Fidesz concert in Budapest's Heroes' Square drew 100,000 people, with Magyar urging supporters to avoid provocation. Analysts say the final tally may hinge on 22 "battleground seats," where 5% of votes won't be counted immediately, potentially delaying results for days.
