Ask Onix
Germany accelerates military expansion to counter Russia
Germany's top military commander, General Carsten Breuer, has warned that Russia could pose a direct threat to NATO territory by 2029, prompting Berlin to launch its largest rearmament program since the Cold War.
Breuer's urgent warning
Speaking at a military base in Munster, near the Dutch border, Breuer described the current security environment as the most dangerous he has witnessed in his four-decade career. He cited Russia's rapid military buildup-nearly doubling its pre-Ukraine war strength-as evidence that Moscow could be capable of launching a major offensive against NATO within five years.
"What we are facing is a threat from Russia. In 2029, it will be possible for Russia to conduct a major war against NATO. As a soldier, I have to say: we must be prepared."
General Carsten Breuer, Chief of the German Armed Forces
Historic shift in defense spending
Germany's defense budget is set to surge from €95 billion in 2025 to €162 billion by 2029, a 70% increase. The country aims to raise military spending to 5% of GDP, up from 1.2% a decade ago. Public opinion polls show strong support for the expansion, marking a dramatic reversal from post-World War II pacifism.
In 2025, the German parliament amended the constitution to lift borrowing restrictions for defense, a move Sophia Besch of the Carnegie Institute for Peace called a "cultural revolution." The decision reflects growing anxiety over U.S. reliability under President Donald Trump, whose administration has signaled a reduced commitment to European security.
Rebuilding forces and capabilities
Germany currently has 182,000 active-duty troops. Breuer plans to add 20,000 within a year and 60,000 over the next decade, supplemented by a 200,000-strong reserve force. Recruitment is accelerating, with 16,100 applications in February 2026-a 20% year-over-year increase-and 5,300 new enlistments, up 14%.
To reduce dependence on U.S. suppliers, Germany is prioritizing domestic arms production, including drones, precision strike systems, and space-based intelligence. "We are working on a prioritized list," Breuer said, emphasizing the need for "operational independence" within NATO.
Neighbors' changing perceptions
Germany's military revival has been met with cautious optimism among European allies. In Lithuania, where Berlin now stations 1,200 troops-set to rise to 5,000 by 2027-German forces conducted live-fire exercises near the Belarusian border, simulating a response to a potential Russian invasion.
"Our Chancellor announced we are building Europe's most powerful conventional army. This fits Germany's economic strength and role in Europe. We are not doing this alone-we are doing this in NATO and the EU."
Lieutenant Colonel Sebastian Hagen, Commander of Panzerbrigade 45
Retired Polish General Andrzek Falkowski, a former NATO official, called Germany's rearmament "good news for Poland, Europe, and NATO." Poland, historically wary of German militarism, now views Berlin as a critical ally in countering Russian aggression.
Challenges and skepticism
Despite progress, analysts doubt Europe can match U.S. military capabilities. The Pentagon's 2026 budget of $961.6 billion dwarfs Germany's spending, and trust in U.S. leadership has plummeted-only 27% of Germans now view relations with Washington as positive, down from 74% in 2024.
"Germany will shape the future of European defense," said Besch, "but no single country can replace the U.S. The trust built over decades won't be replicated overnight."
Breuer's mission: Deterrence, not war
When asked if he could become the first German general since 1945 to lead troops into combat, Breuer emphasized deterrence. "I'm preparing Germany to defend itself," he said. "This is about preventing war, not waging it."
His measured tone reflects Germany's delicate balancing act: rebuilding its military while reassuring neighbors that its power will be used responsibly. As Breuer put it, "I feel the responsibility every day-not just for Germany, but for the alliance we lead together."
