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Global food supply at risk as fertilizer shipments stall
The ongoing conflict in Iran is disrupting fertilizer supplies, potentially cutting global food production by the equivalent of 10 billion meals per week, warns the CEO of Yara, a leading fertilizer producer.
Shipping blockade chokes key supply route
Svein Tore Holsether, Yara's chief executive, told the BBC that hostilities in the Gulf region have blocked shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for fertilizer exports. Approximately one-third of the world's fertilizers-including urea, potash, ammonia, and phosphates-typically pass through this waterway, according to the United Nations.
Holsether estimated that current disruptions have already halted the production of up to 500,000 tons of nitrogen fertilizer. He warned that reduced fertilizer use could slash crop yields by as much as 50% in the first growing season, triggering a global bidding war for food.
Poorest nations face steepest impact
The crisis is expected to hit low-income countries hardest, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, where under-fertilization is already a problem. Holsether cautioned that these regions could see "significant drops" in crop yields, exacerbating existing food insecurity.
Professor Paul Teng, a food security expert in Singapore, noted that while some Asian countries may have enough fertilizer for the current planting season, prolonged disruptions could devastate rice harvests in the coming months.
Farmers squeezed by rising costs
Farmers worldwide are grappling with soaring input costs, including diesel, energy, and fertilizers, while crop prices have yet to adjust. Holsether described the situation as "a daunting series of challenges" for producers, who face higher expenses without corresponding increases in revenue.
Fertilizer prices have surged by 80% since the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran escalated earlier this year. The United Nations' World Food Programme estimates that the fallout could push an additional 45 million people into acute hunger in 2026.
Food inflation set to rise in Europe
While the UK is unlikely to face food shortages, the Food and Drink Federation projects that food inflation could reach 10% by December. The Bank of England has also warned that food price inflation may climb to 4.6% by September, with further increases possible later in the year.
Holsether urged European nations to consider the broader consequences of a food bidding war, emphasizing that wealthier countries could outcompete poorer nations for limited supplies. "The most vulnerable people in developing nations will pay the highest price," he said, warning of worsening food affordability, scarcity, and hunger.
Planting seasons heighten urgency
With planting seasons underway in different regions-the UK in peak season and Asia just beginning-analysts warn that the full impact of fertilizer shortages may not be felt until later this year, when harvests fall short of expectations.
