Europe’s standoff with Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’ intensifies as stateless tankers evade sanctions

Europe's standoff with Russia's 'shadow fleet' intensifies as stateless tankers evade sanctions

On the western Baltic Sea, a Swedish Coastguard officer radios a sanctioned oil tanker, requesting routine details-flag state, insurance, and last port of call. The vessel, bound for Russia, responds through crackling static, its answers barely audible. This encounter, described by Swedish investigator Jonatan Tholin, exemplifies Europe's growing struggle to police Russia's shadow fleet: a network of aging, often stateless tankers used to bypass Western sanctions on Russian oil exports.

Rise of the 'floating rust buckets'

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Western sanctions have targeted Moscow's energy revenues, prompting the Kremlin to rely on a fleet of vessels with obscured ownership, questionable insurance, and-increasingly-no valid national flag. These ships, many deemed floating rust buckets by Michelle Wiese Bockmann, senior analyst at Windward AI, pose escalating risks. If there's a billion-dollar oil spill, good luck finding someone responsible to cover the costs, she warns.

Data from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) reveals a stark trend: over 450 vessels globally now sail under false flags-more than double last year's figure-with tankers dominating the list. The BBC tracked one such ship, the Unity, which has cycled through at least three names and four flags since 2021, including a false claim to Lesotho-a landlocked nation with no maritime registry.

The Unity's shadowy voyage

The Unity, originally named Ocean Explorer, was built in 2009 and spent over a decade under Singapore's flag. By 2019, it appeared in a UN report for alleged involvement in a ship-to-ship fuel transfer linked to North Korea. After being struck from the Marshall Islands' registry in 2024 due to UK sanctions against its operator, the vessel adopted a series of new identities-Beks Swan, March, and finally Unity-while retaining its unique IMO number.

In late October, the tanker traversed the North Sea before entering the Baltic, passing Sweden and Estonia. By 6 November, it anchored near Ust-Luga, a key Russian oil terminal, where it remains. Despite being added to UK and EU sanction lists earlier this year, the Unity continues operations, underscoring the challenges of enforcement. Earlier this year, it reportedly faced mechanical failures in the English Channel and was detained in Russia over unpaid wages.

Limited powers, high stakes

Coastal nations like Estonia report a surge in flagless vessels. Commodore Ivo Värk, head of Estonia's navy, notes that such encounters have risen from one or two annually to dozens in 2025. Yet intervention is fraught with risk. When Estonia attempted to intercept a flagless tanker in May, Russia deployed a fighter jet and maintained a near-constant naval presence in the Gulf of Finland afterward. The risk of escalation is too high to act regularly, Värk admits.

A NATO official, speaking anonymously, acknowledges the dilemma: Every day in the Baltic, there's suspicious activity... but we don't want to be cowboys. Monitoring itself is a deterrent. The principle of innocent passage-a cornerstone of maritime law-complicates actions against stateless vessels, which technically forfeit such protections. While countries like France and Finland have detained ships suspected of crimes, these measures remain rare.

Sanctions' mixed results

Despite sanctions, Russia's oil revenues reached $13.1 billion in October alone, per the International Energy Agency (IEA)-though down $2.3 billion year-over-year. Shadow tankers, either sanctioned or suspected, now account for 62% of Russia's crude oil exports, with China and India as the top buyers, followed by Turkey and the EU, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

As Europe ramps up checks, analysts like Bockmann see a broader erosion: You can literally watch the international rules-based order crumbling. Russia's embassy in London dismissed the shadow fleet label as discriminatory, blaming sanctions for forcing shipowners to navigate a fragmented regulatory landscape.

On the front lines

Back aboard the Swedish coastguard vessel, the radio exchange with the sanctioned tanker concludes in under five minutes. Thank you for your cooperation, the officer says as the ship continues toward Russia. Investigator Tholin frames the interaction as part of a larger strategy: This information feeds into our maritime surveillance. Yet with the fleet growing darker, the stakes-environmental, economic, and geopolitical-have never been higher.