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European leaders gather in Yerevan for historic summits
Over 30 European heads of state and Canada's prime minister arrived in Armenia's capital on Monday for back-to-back diplomatic events, marking a dramatic shift in the country's foreign policy away from its long-standing alliance with Russia.
Armenia's pivot from Moscow
For decades, Armenia has been Russia's closest partner in the South Caucasus, hosting a Russian military base and relying on Moscow for discounted energy supplies. Russian President Vladimir Putin underscored this dependence during Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's visit to Moscow in April, noting Armenia pays just $177.50 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas-less than a third of European market rates.
The turning point came after Azerbaijan's 2023 military offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, which displaced over 100,000 ethnic Armenians. Russia, despite its peacekeeping presence, did not intervene, nor did it respond to earlier Azerbaijani incursions into Armenian territory under the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
"We realized the security architecture we were part of was not working," said Sargis Khandanyan, chairman of Armenia's National Assembly foreign relations committee.
Sargis Khandanyan, Armenian lawmaker
EU steps into the void
The European Union capitalized on Armenia's disillusionment, brokering a border deal in 2022 and deploying a civilian monitoring mission. Khandanyan credited the EU's physical presence with shifting public opinion toward closer ties with Brussels.
In March 2025, Armenia's parliament voted to begin EU accession talks. The move reflects a broader thaw in relations with Azerbaijan, culminating in an August 2025 White House agreement to end decades of conflict. The deal included plans for the "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity," a trade corridor linking Europe to the region via Armenia's border with Iran.
Diplomatic fallout and Russian retaliation
Europe's embrace of Armenia has strained relations with Azerbaijan, whose parliament suspended ties with the European Parliament last week over a resolution demanding the return of displaced Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians and the release of Armenian prisoners.
Russia has responded with economic and cyber pressure. Days before the summits, Moscow banned Armenian mineral water imports-a move analysts called a "hybrid threat." Artur Papyan of CyberHUB-AM noted a pattern of retaliatory measures, including border delays for Armenian trucks and hacking attempts following pro-EU statements by officials.
In January, hackers compromised hundreds of thousands of WhatsApp accounts, a platform widely used by Armenian officials. A separate attack impersonated the EU ambassador via a fake Signal account, luring NGO leaders with a bogus conference link. Traces led to Zelenograd, a Russian city near Moscow.
Elections and disinformation
The EU approved a two-year civilian mission to counter Russian disinformation and cyber threats ahead of Armenia's June parliamentary elections. Council of Europe Secretary General Alain Berset warned of foreign interference, citing legal gaps in Armenia's defenses against sophisticated attacks.
"Armenia's democratic institutions have made progress, but they are under pressure," Berset said.
Alain Berset, Council of Europe
Papyan reported a surge in Telegram posts framing the summits as a "point of no return" that would provoke Russian retaliation. Despite these tensions, Armenia's government has pressed ahead, though EU membership remains distant, with no timeline or defense guarantees offered.
A fragile balancing act
While European leaders tout visa liberalization and civilian support, Armenia's dependence on Russian gas persists, and no plan exists to replace it. Putin has dismissed the idea of dual membership in the EU and Russia's Eurasian Economic Union as "impossible by definition."
For now, Armenia's diplomatic tightrope walk continues, with its leaders navigating between Western promises and Moscow's warnings.
