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Ethiopia's election proceeds as violence disrupts voting access
Ethiopia's general election begins Monday, yet ongoing conflicts in multiple regions will prevent millions from casting ballots, including the entire northern Tigray area still recovering from a devastating civil war.
Tigray excluded amid rising tensions
No voting will occur in Tigray's 38 electoral districts, the national election board confirmed in May. The region, home to approximately six million people, remains under an interim administration established after the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement ended a two-year war that killed an estimated 600,000.
Relations between Tigray's leadership and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government have deteriorated sharply. The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which governed the region before the war, recently reasserted control by electing Debretsion Gebremichael as leader without consulting Addis Ababa. The government had previously designated the TPLF a terrorist organization and revoked its legal status after it refused to register as a new party.
Disputes over territory, particularly western Tigray, further strain the fragile peace. Around one million people displaced from that area remain in overcrowded camps within Tigray, awaiting resolution.
Eritrea's role adds regional instability
Eritrea, which shares a northern border with Tigray, fought alongside Ethiopian forces during the civil war. However, relations have since soured, partly due to Abiy's push for Red Sea port access. Eritrea's independence in 1993 left Ethiopia landlocked, and reports suggest Asmara has recently engaged with the TPLF, heightening tensions with Addis Ababa.
Analysts warn that without regional mediation, miscommunication could reignite broader conflict. Magnus Taylor of the International Crisis Group (ICG) emphasized the need for dialogue to prevent escalation. "Reducing tensions would allow differences to be addressed through negotiation rather than violence," he told the BBC.
Widespread insurgencies and media restrictions
Violence persists in Ethiopia's two most populous regions, Amhara and Oromia. Fano militias in Amhara and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) continue armed resistance against government forces, seeking greater ethnic autonomy. Conflict monitoring group ACLED reported over 9,400 deaths in these regions in 2024 alone, displacing hundreds of thousands.
Despite the insecurity, authorities claim 97% of Amhara and Oromia are prepared for elections. The opposition Coalition for Ethiopian Unity disputes this, citing unsafe conditions for campaigning. "We cannot operate in these regions," coalition secretary Mistreselasie Tamrat told BBC Amharic.
Press freedom has also declined under Abiy's administration. Ethiopia ranked 148th out of 180 countries in Reporters Without Borders' 2025 Press Freedom Index. Human Rights Watch condemned arbitrary arrests of journalists in September 2025, while the Committee to Protect Journalists highlighted a "troubling pattern" after Reuters reporters' credentials were revoked in February.
Economic growth contrasts with political repression
Abiy's tenure began with promises of reform. In 2018, he released political prisoners and journalists, earning the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize for ending a two-decade stalemate with Eritrea. However, critics now accuse his government of suppressing dissent, forcing opponents into exile, and arresting rivals.
Economically, Ethiopia remains one of Africa's fastest-growing nations, with a population of 135.9 million. The World Bank projects GDP per capita will reach $1,133 in 2026, up from $641 in 2016. The International Monetary Fund and World Bank have supported Abiy's reforms, including foreign currency liberalization, though the country's debt stood at $36.5 billion in 2024.
Urban development projects in Addis Ababa, such as the "Corridor Development" and "Riverside" initiatives, symbolize progress but have faced criticism for displacing tens of thousands through mass demolitions.
Opposition participation and voter sentiment
Veteran opposition leader Prof. Merera Gudina of the Oromo Federalist Congress called this election the least competitive in Ethiopia's recent history. "We participate symbolically to avoid deregistration," he told the BBC, citing legal restrictions on consecutive boycotts.
Voters elect representatives to the 547-member parliament, with the winning party forming the government. Abiy's Prosperity Party, which replaced the former ruling coalition in 2019, secured a landslide victory in 2021. Deputy Prime Minister Temesgen Tiruneh, from Amhara, stated in March that the party "does not want to win everything" this time, emphasizing plans to include opposition voices in government.
Yet many young voters express cautious optimism. Fenet Dereje, an Addis Ababa resident, told the BBC, "If the election outcome is negative, instability could disrupt my education and daily life."
Election board reports high registration despite challenges
The National Election Board of Ethiopia announced over 50.5 million registered voters, though turnout remains uncertain due to conflicts and political unrest. Voting has already been canceled in 30 of Amhara's 137 constituencies.
ICG analyst Taylor noted that while Abiy is expected to win, internal insurgencies and the risk of renewed war in the north threaten stability. "The election and ongoing conflicts can coexist," he said, underscoring the dual realities facing Ethiopia.
