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Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions escalate over Red Sea port claims
Rising military and diplomatic tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea have sparked fears of a new armed conflict, as Ethiopian officials intensify demands for access to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory, particularly the port city of Assab. Eritrea has condemned the rhetoric as "dangerous" and warned of severe consequences if its sovereignty is challenged.
Ethiopia's push for Red Sea access
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed first declared in 2023 that securing access to the Red Sea was an "existential matter" for the landlocked nation. The statements, dismissed by Eritrea at the time, have since escalated into explicit threats. Abiy and senior military leaders, including Army Chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula, have repeatedly asserted Ethiopia's claim to Assab, a strategic port just 60 km from the border, and hinted at military action to seize it.
On 1 September, Abiy stated that Ethiopia's "mistake" of losing Red Sea access after Eritrea's 1993 secession would be "corrected tomorrow." Ethiopian Ambassador to Kenya Bacha Debele reinforced the stance on 3 November, telling a pro-government media outlet that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be reclaimed "by force." "The question now is not whether Assab is ours or not, but how do we get it back?" Debele said.
Field Marshal Birhanu Jula, addressing soldiers on 21 September, framed the dispute as a demographic issue: "Our population is now 130 million and will grow to 200 million in the next 25 years. How can the interests of two million [Eritreans] override those of 200 million?" He vowed to "strengthen our defense forces, speed up development, and secure a sea outlet."
Eritrea's warnings and military readiness
Eritrea has responded with restrained but firm warnings. Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel labeled Ethiopia's push as a "toxic agenda" of "irredentism"-a policy of reclaiming lost territory-and called it a "red line that should not be crossed." On 16 September, the ministry cautioned that attempts to legitimize "flagrant aggression" would carry "serious consequences" for Ethiopia and the region.
The Eritrean military, typically reserved in public statements, issued a rare warning on 13 November, urging Ethiopian leaders to avoid "plunging the Ethiopian people into a quagmire." The statement declared, "The fate of anyone crossing the red line is plunging into an abyss from which they will never have a second chance to learn."
While no major troop movements have been reported along the border, Ethiopia has showcased its military buildup. State television has broadcast graduations of thousands of cadets, and the army has paraded newly acquired artillery, tanks, and armored vehicles. Lieutenant General Hachalu Sheleme, head of the defense force's human resources, claimed "tens of thousands of youths" were joining the military, calling it "a message to our enemies."
Historical context and shifting alliances
Ethiopia and Eritrea share a fraught history. Eritrea, with its 1,350 km Red Sea coastline, seceded from Ethiopia in 1993 after a 30-year independence war. A border conflict in 1998-2000 killed over 100,000 people, though a peace deal was signed in 2000. Relations briefly thawed in 2018 when Abiy and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki declared an end to hostilities-a move that earned Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize. The two nations later allied during Ethiopia's 2020-2022 civil war in Tigray, but ties have since deteriorated.
Domestic mobilization and media campaigns
Ethiopia's state media has amplified the government's narrative, framing the loss of Red Sea access as "unjust" and calling for its restoration. State broadcaster ETV has aired footage of demonstrators and soldiers holding signs reading "From the dam to the sea"-referencing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam-and "Assab is ours." Editorial commentaries precede news bulletins, reinforcing the claim.
Local media reports suggest the government has mobilized an online network of 60,000 individuals to promote its stance and counter criticism. Meanwhile, Eritrea's state media has accused Ethiopia of "revisiting issues that were settled decades ago" and attempting to "deceive the world." Even typically critical Eritrean opposition outlets, such as the UK-based Asena TV, have urged unity against the perceived Ethiopian threat, marking a shift in tone.
International and regional implications
The dispute risks destabilizing the Horn of Africa, a region already grappling with conflicts in Sudan, Somalia, and Ethiopia's internal strife. Analysts warn that a military confrontation could draw in regional actors, exacerbate humanitarian crises, and disrupt Red Sea shipping routes-a vital corridor for global trade. Neither side has shown signs of backing down, raising the specter of a conflict that could echo the devastating 1998-2000 war.
"The question now is not whether Assab is ours or not, but how do we get it back?"
Bacha Debele, Ethiopian Ambassador to Kenya, 3 November 2025
"Attempts to legitimize flagrant aggression will have serious consequences for Ethiopia and its neighbors."
Eritrean Information Ministry, 16 September 2025
