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Dutch Centrists Edge Out Wilders in Tight Election Race
The centrist liberal party D66, led by Rob Jetten, has narrowly won the Dutch general election, defeating anti-Islam populist Geert Wilders' Freedom Party by a razor-thin margin of 15,000 votes, according to near-final projections released Thursday.
With 99% of ballots counted, both parties secured 26 seats in the 150-seat parliament, though Dutch news agency ANP reported Jetten's party could still claim a 27th seat once overseas postal votes are fully tallied. The result marks a dramatic shift from pre-election polls, which had favored Wilders.
Jetten Claims Historic Victory
Jetten, 38, called the outcome "a historic result" and emphasized the significance of defeating populism with a positive campaign. "We've shown Europe and the world that it's possible to beat populist movements if you campaign with hope and solutions," he told reporters.
The D66 leader's "Yes, we can" slogan resonated in major cities like Rotterdam, The Hague, and Utrecht, where his party outperformed Wilders' Freedom Party. Jetten had previously refrained from declaring victory prematurely, but ANP's analysis of remaining ballots-including votes from Dutch citizens abroad-confirmed his lead as insurmountable.
Challenges Ahead for Coalition Building
Despite the win, Jetten faces a daunting task in forming a stable government. Dutch elections historically require multi-party coalitions, and with no party securing more than 30 seats-an unprecedented scenario-Jetten will need at least three partners to reach the 76-seat majority threshold.
Potential allies include the conservative-liberal VVD, the left-wing Labour (PvdA)-GreenLeft alliance, and the Christian Democrats. However, VVD leader Dilan Yesilgöz has already ruled out cooperation with left-wing parties, complicating negotiations. Outgoing Prime Minister Dick Schoof, a caretaker leader appointed after Wilders' failed coalition attempts, predicted the process could drag on for months. "I'd be surprised if a new government is formed by Christmas," he said Friday.
Wilders' Short-Lived Government
Wilders, who won the previous election in November 2023, saw his government collapse in July 2024 after just 11 months. His insistence on stricter asylum and migration policies alienated coalition partners, forcing early elections. This time, his bid for the premiership faltered as potential allies refused to back a far-right leader, leading to Schoof's interim appointment.
"I reckon I'll still be prime minister at Christmas-I'd be surprised if [a new government] happened by then."
Dick Schoof, outgoing Dutch Prime Minister
What's Next?
Jetten, poised to become the Netherlands' youngest modern prime minister, must now navigate complex coalition talks. Analysts warn the process could mirror the protracted negotiations following the 2023 election, which took seven months to resolve. The outcome will test whether Jetten's centrist vision can bridge deep ideological divides in Dutch politics.
