Ask Onix
Cuba faces worst crisis since Cold War as fuel shortages bite
Havana residents resort to firewood for cooking as Venezuela's oil cutoff deepens economic collapse, exposing cracks in the revolution's legacy.
Echoes of pre-revolution poverty
The Museum of the Revolution in Havana once showcased Cuba's transformation from Batista-era destitution to socialist progress. Black-and-white photographs of palm-leaf huts and malnourished families served as proof of the revolution's triumph. Yet today, Havana housewife Lisandra Botey sees her own life mirrored in those images.
"We're living like that now-exactly like that," she says outside her makeshift home, patched together with scrap metal and wood. Every morning, she scavenges firewood from Havana's beaches to cook breakfast, as power outages leave her family in the dark during school hours. Her nine-year-old daughter left for class that day on an empty stomach.
"Every day is the same hunger, the same misery."
Brenei Hernández, Lisandra's husband and unemployed construction worker
Fuel crisis cripples daily life
The island's economic freefall accelerated after the U.S. ousted Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro on January 3, severing Cuba's primary oil lifeline. Washington's tightened embargo-threatening tariffs on nations supplying Cuba-has left traditional allies like Russia and China hesitant to step in. A limited U.S. Treasury exemption for "humanitarian" oil sales this week offered scant relief.
Havana's blackouts now stretch 15 hours daily. Hospitals admit only emergency cases, schools shutter intermittently, and garbage trucks sit idle, leaving streets piled with waste. At gas stations, drivers queue for days via a government app to buy 20 liters of fuel-paid in U.S. dollars. Black-market prices have surged.
Economist Ricardo Torres estimates Cuba's oil reserves may last six to eight weeks, though the government withholds inventory data. "Extreme rationing" looms, he warns, though draconian measures are already in place.
Washington's strategy: regime change or collapse?
President Donald Trump has declared Cuba "ready to fall," escalating pressure at its most vulnerable moment since the Cold War. Analysts suggest the administration aims to destabilize the socialist government by exacerbating internal crises. Torres calls it a revival of Washington's long-standing goal: "regime change-whether sudden or negotiated."
Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel condemned the policy as "inhumane" and illegal, asking, "What right does a world power have to deny fuel to a smaller nation?" Yet the U.S. shows no sign of relenting. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a Cuban-American hardliner, is reportedly in talks with Havana's leadership, though details remain murky.
Former U.S. Ambassador Jeffrey DeLaurentis cautioned that Trump's "coercive steps" risk unintended consequences, including a humanitarian disaster. Mexico has already sent emergency aid-powdered milk and hygiene supplies-to alleviate shortages.
Public anger shifts toward Havana
Despite the U.S. embargo's role, frustration is increasingly directed at Cuba's government. Brenei Hernández, stirring a pot of white rice for his daughter's dinner, voices a sentiment once unthinkable: "I'd like Trump to take this place over. Then let's see if things get better."
Such candor reflects eroding fear of reprisals. Economist Torres notes that Raúl Castro, 94, and his inner circle-including his grandson, Raúl Rodríguez Castro (nicknamed "El Cangrejo")-hold real power, not civilian leaders like Díaz-Canel. Reports suggest Rodríguez Castro may be Washington's backchannel contact.
At the Munich Security Conference, Rubio hinted at a softer approach, emphasizing economic reforms over political upheaval-a shift DeLaurentis likened to "Obama 2.0." Yet the Cuban-American lobby's tolerance for negotiations remains uncertain.
Revolution's legacy at stake
Cuba's social safety net-universal healthcare, literacy programs, and low infant mortality-is unraveling. Tour guide Esteban Bello Rodríguez, who ferries visitors in vintage American cars, laments the fuel shortage's toll on his livelihood. "A solution must be found," he says. "This is affecting the entire country."
The Museum of the Revolution, closed for renovations, symbolizes the broader question: Will 2026 bring a renovation of Cuba's socialist system-or its demise?
