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China reports sharp export growth despite US tariffs
China's exports surged over 20% in the first two months of 2026, defying economist forecasts and setting the stage for another record trade surplus, official data revealed Tuesday.
Key figures and drivers
The 20% year-on-year jump in January and February outpaced the 7% growth analysts had predicted. Beijing merges the two months to offset distortions from the Lunar New Year holiday, which shifts dates annually.
Electronics led the export boom, while shipments of agricultural and manufactured goods also climbed. Trade with the European Union rose 27.8%, and exports to ASEAN nations-including Thailand, Singapore, and the Philippines-grew nearly 30%.
US trade gap persists
Despite the overall surge, China's exports to the United States fell more than 10%. The decline reflects ongoing tariffs and trade barriers imposed by the Trump administration to address bilateral imbalances.
President Donald Trump is scheduled to visit China in early April for talks with President Xi Jinping, a meeting that could shape future trade policies.
Economic pressures at home
China's reliance on exports has intensified as domestic challenges mount. Weak consumer spending, a shrinking population, and a prolonged property market crisis have weighed on growth. Last week, Beijing set a 2026 economic growth target of 4.5% to 5%, down from the 5% goal achieved in 2025-largely through export strength.
Global headwinds
The export surge comes as China navigates broader economic turbulence. Like much of Asia, the country is grappling with the fallout from the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, which has disrupted global energy markets and supply chains.
"Exports remain the lifeline of China's economy, even as domestic demand falters,"
Economist at Beijing-based research firm
Outlook
Analysts warn that sustained export growth may hinge on resolving trade tensions with Washington and stabilizing energy costs. The upcoming Trump-Xi summit could offer clues to whether a détente is possible.
