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China joins peace efforts amid regional energy crisis
As the Middle East conflict enters its second month, disrupting global oil supplies and pushing prices higher, China has positioned itself as a mediator alongside Pakistan. The move comes as U.S. President Donald Trump suggests military action in Iran could conclude within weeks, though no clear strategy has emerged.
Five-point plan aims for ceasefire and strait reopening
Beijing and Islamabad unveiled a joint proposal to secure a ceasefire and restore access to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit route. Pakistan, a former U.S. ally, appears to have gained Trump's support for its mediation role, while China's involvement signals a strategic shift ahead of high-stakes trade talks between Xi Jinping and Trump next month.
"China's backing is crucial-morally, politically, and diplomatically. We hope Pakistan can play a more decisive role,"
Zhu Yongbiao, Middle East expert and director of the Centre for Afghanistan Studies at Lanzhou University
Economic stability drives Beijing's intervention
China's muted response to the conflict has given way to active diplomacy, driven by fears of a prolonged energy shock. As the world's largest oil importer, China has stockpiled reserves but remains vulnerable to supply disruptions. A sustained crisis could slow global growth, hurting China's export-dependent economy.
"If the world economy slows due to an energy shock, China's factories and exporters will suffer," said Matt Pottinger, chairman of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies' China Program. "Beijing is genuinely concerned about where this could lead."
Trade ties deepen China's regional influence
The Middle East has become a key market for China, with exports to the region growing nearly twice as fast as to other areas last year. The country dominates electric vehicle sales and desalination investments in the Gulf, while its state-owned Power Construction Corporation operates projects in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, and Iraq.
China's economic leverage extends to both U.S. allies like Saudi Arabia and adversaries like Iran, which relies on Beijing for 80% of its oil exports. This dual engagement has allowed China to cultivate relationships across the region, though its military presence remains limited compared to Washington's.
Past mediation offers mixed results
China's diplomatic track record in the Middle East is uneven. In 2023, it brokered a détente between Saudi Arabia and Iran after years of hostility, and later hosted Palestinian factions to form a unity government. While these efforts highlighted China's potential as a mediator, they fell short of resolving deeper conflicts.
"China prioritizes economic development and avoids entanglement in wars," Zhu noted. "There's broad consensus against reckless involvement." However, its lack of military bases in the Gulf-unlike the U.S.-restricts its ability to enforce agreements.
Neutrality claims face scrutiny
Beijing's push to present itself as a neutral broker contrasts with its alignment with Russia and its actions in Hong Kong and Taiwan. Critics argue its authoritarian governance and silence on human rights abuses undermine its credibility as a global rule-maker. Yet, as a major power with strategic interests, China continues to expand its influence in the region.
Neither the U.S. nor Iran has responded to the latest peace plan, but China's initiative allows Xi to position himself as a peacemaker-distancing Beijing from Washington's approach. The outcome remains uncertain, but the move underscores China's growing ambitions in Middle East diplomacy.
