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Dramatic transformation of submerged reef
Antelope Reef, a previously submerged atoll in the Paracel Islands, has been transformed into a 6-square-kilometer crescent of land in just six months. China dredged millions of tonnes of sand from the seabed to create the new territory, which now features a scattering of buildings and a lagoon filled with cutter suction dredgers.
China's land reclamation efforts
China operates the world's largest fleet of cutter suction dredgers, some capable of moving 6,000 cubic meters of sand per hour-equivalent to filling two Olympic-sized swimming pools. This rapid expansion mirrors previous efforts in the Spratly Islands, where China converted reefs like Mischief, Fiery Cross, and Subi into military installations with runways and bases.
Regional responses to China's actions
Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei also claim parts of the Paracel and Spratly Islands. Vietnam has accelerated its own dredging operations, creating 11 new harbors and over 11 square kilometers of reclaimed land in the past three years. The Philippines, meanwhile, has reinforced its presence on Pagasa Island and Second Thomas Shoal, despite frequent confrontations with Chinese vessels.
Geopolitical tensions and diplomatic stalemate
China's construction on Antelope Reef may be a signal to Vietnam, which has recently adopted a more conciliatory tone toward Beijing. Despite formal protests, Vietnam has avoided public criticism while quietly expanding its own military infrastructure in the region. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has struggled to negotiate a binding code of conduct, with China largely ignoring a 2002 non-binding declaration.
"Vietnam has been less willing to lead the public relations battle against China, but on the water, they've shown a greater willingness to stand up to Beijing," said Greg Poling, director of the Asian Maritime Transparency Initiative.
Legal challenges and military posturing
A 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague rejected China's nine-dash line claims, but Beijing has ignored the decision. The Philippines has shifted tactics, using its outnumbered coast guard to challenge Chinese dominance, while the U.S. has provided military aid and conducted Freedom of Navigation Operations to assert international sea lanes.
New reality in the South China Sea
Analysts suggest claimant nations are now focusing on fortifying their existing positions rather than pursuing a unified diplomatic solution. With China as the dominant power, smaller nations are adopting a strategy of incremental expansion and military buildup to protect their interests.
"China continues to do whatever it wants on the water, eroding sovereignty. The best hope may be a non-binding agreement that allows claimants to negotiate among themselves," Poling added.
