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By-elections set to determine Liberal majority
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has called three by-elections for April 13, contests that could grant his Liberal Party a parliamentary majority and extend its governing mandate by three years.
Key races in Toronto and Montreal
Two of the vacancies are in Toronto ridings long held by the Liberals. The third, in Montreal's Terrebonne suburb, is a high-stakes rematch decided by a single vote in 2025.
The Liberals currently hold 169 seats-three short of the 172 needed for a majority in the 338-seat House of Commons.
Vacancies and recent shifts
The Toronto seats opened after Chrystia Freeland resigned to advise Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Bill Blair left to become Canada's envoy to the UK. Both ridings-University-Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest-have been Liberal strongholds since 2015.
Terrebonne, meanwhile, flipped to the Liberals in 2025 by one vote after being held by the separatist Bloc Québécois for a decade. The Supreme Court ordered a new vote after the Bloc alleged a mail-in ballot was invalidated due to a printing error.
High-stakes rematch in Terrebonne
The Montreal suburb will see a repeat contest between Liberal candidate Tatiana Auguste and Bloc Québécois rival Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné. The Liberals have already launched a ground campaign, with volunteers canvassing and making calls.
Conservative defections fuel Liberal momentum
The Liberals' push for a majority has been bolstered by three former Conservative MPs switching allegiances. The opposition has condemned the moves as "undemocratic," accusing the government of pressuring its members.
Recent polls suggest the Liberals could secure a majority if a general election were held now, though the by-elections will serve as a critical test.
What's at stake
A sweep of all three seats would give Carney's government the stability to pass legislation without relying on opposition support. If successful, the Liberals would avoid a federal election until at least 2029.
