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Ashes 2025-26: Experts split on outcome as England eyes first Perth win in 14 years
The 2025-26 Ashes series kicks off in Perth this week, with Test Match Special's commentary team offering sharply divided predictions-ranging from an Australian whitewash to England's first series victory Down Under since 2010-11.
Stokes' fitness seen as pivotal
One analyst argued England's chances hinge on captain Ben Stokes staying fit across all five Tests, noting his all-round role-bowling, batting, fielding, and leading-could force Australia to rush injured pacers back if England dominate early. "If they win well in Perth, the pressure shifts entirely," they said.
Another echoed the sentiment, calling Perth "the linchpin" of the series: "England haven't won there in 14 years, but if they break that streak, they could ride the momentum to a 3-2 win."
Rain and pitch trends factor into forecasts
Weather and conditions emerged as wildcards. One pundit predicted rain could wash out the Sydney Test, comparing its climate to Manchester, while others warned Australia's recent pitch trends-favoring pace and bounce-could neutralize England's aggressive 2023 blueprint. "They rattled Cummins and Hazlewood at home, but replicating that away is another story," a commentator noted.
From 5-0 sweep to 2-3 upset: predictions vary widely
The boldest forecast called for a 5-0 Australian sweep, citing their "knack for edging tight games." Others split the difference, with 3-1 and 2-2 draws as common guesses. Two optimists backed England 3-2, pointing to their 2023 home success against Australia's bowlers-though one conceded, "I'll probably change my mind after the first ball."
"Let's hope it's not over before Christmas this time. After three one-sided series since 2010, even a draw would feel like progress."
TMS pundit
Key questions ahead of the first Test
- Can England's batters handle Australia's pace? Their 2023 home strategy-attacking Cummins, Hazlewood, and Boland-yielded runs but may struggle on faster decks.
- Will Australia's injured quicks return early? Cummins and Hazlewood's absence in Test 1 could backfire if England start strong.
- Perth's psychological weight: No England win there since 2011; a victory would mark their best Ashes start in Australia since 2010.
Series schedule
The five-Test series begins in Perth (Dec 4-8), followed by Brisbane (Dec 12-16), Melbourne (Dec 26-30), Sydney (Jan 3-7), and Hobart (Jan 15-19).
