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Africa's diplomatic moment amid global realignment
Africa's heads of state convene in Addis Ababa this weekend for their annual summit as the continent grapples with a rapidly changing international order. Analysts warn that without a cohesive strategy, African nations risk being sidelined in an era dominated by great-power competition and transactional diplomacy.
US policy shifts leave Africa at a crossroads
The Biden administration's rhetoric of partnership with Africa has not translated into sustained engagement. Despite a 2022 summit where President Joe Biden declared the US "all-in on Africa's future," his only sub-Saharan visit as president-a brief stop in Cape Verde and Angola-occurred in the final month of his term. Meanwhile, the Trump administration's America First doctrine has narrowed US priorities, emphasizing bilateral deals over multilateral cooperation.
The White House's latest National Security Strategy, released in November, explicitly states that the US "cannot afford to be equally attentive to every region." Africa is addressed in just three paragraphs, focusing on conflict mitigation, trade, and transitioning from aid to investment. Critics argue this approach weakens Africa's collective bargaining power, particularly in critical sectors like mining.
"The reality is we don't have the bandwidth nor the resources to do everything for everyone. We have to steward them to achieve optimal outcomes for our citizens and partners."
Peter Pham, former US Special Envoy to Africa
Minerals and geopolitics: A test case in the DRC
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) exemplifies the stakes. In December, the US signed a minerals deal with Kinshasa and Rwanda aimed at securing supply chains for critical minerals like cobalt and lithium-essential for electronics and green technology. While the agreement includes provisions for local investment, experts caution it may prioritize US corporate interests over broader economic development.
DRC Mines Minister Louis Watum Kabamba dismissed concerns, insisting at a Cape Town mining summit that his country would not "sell everything for nothing to America." Yet Georgetown University's Ken Opalo warns that Africa's fragmented approach leaves individual nations vulnerable to unfavorable terms. "The US focus on minerals is about securing mining rights for American companies, not deeper economic cooperation," he told the BBC.
China, Russia, and the scramble for influence
The US is far from alone in courting African partners. China, long the continent's top foreign investor, saw its dominance challenged last year when US investment surpassed its own. Meanwhile, Russia, Turkey, and the UAE are pursuing security and economic deals, often with opaque terms. In Sudan, where a civil war has triggered the world's worst humanitarian crisis, external actors are accused of fueling the conflict-Turkey, Iran, and Russia allegedly arming the military, while the UAE is linked to the Rapid Support Forces. All deny the allegations.
"The failure to resolve Sudan reflects the continent's lack of agency," Opalo said. "African leaders lack the strategic depth to navigate this new era effectively."
Calls for continental unity grow louder
Ghana's former President John Mahama, speaking at Davos, framed the crisis as an "inflection point." He argued that Africa must "pull itself up by its own bootstraps," citing overreliance on foreign aid and the exploitation of its natural resources. "We supply the world's critical minerals but capture almost none of the value," he said, advocating for coordinated industrialization and a unified negotiating stance with external partners.
Mahama's Accra Reset initiative echoes long-standing calls for regional integration, including the African Continental Free Trade Area and the African Union's Agenda 2063. Yet progress has been slow, hampered by domestic challenges and competing national priorities. Tighisti Amare of Chatham House notes that "leaders must prioritize regional interests over national ones to gain real agency in negotiations."
Middle powers and the path forward
Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney's Davos analogy-countries are either "at the table or on the menu"-has resonated with African leaders. Carney urged middle powers like Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya to collaborate, but Amare cautions that these nations "lack the continental leadership to drive integration."
As the Addis Ababa summit opens, the question remains whether Africa can leverage its collective strength. "The dinner invitations aren't being sent yet," one analyst noted. "But the continent's leaders have a rare opportunity to rewrite the rules-if they can act together."
